It’s that time of year again. It’s time for the College Football Playoff Committee to release their rankings and grow the excitement towards the New Year’s Six Bowl games.
There’s still plenty of change coming, but let’s take a look at the best New Year’s Six Bowl Projections.
New Year’s Six Bowl Projections
It’s important to note, these predictions differ from our College Football Bowl Projections. While our projections do just what the name says — project the bowl game appearances — our predictions are what we think the College Football Playoff Selection Committee will do when seeding the six New Year’s Bowl Games.
MORE: What are the New Year’s Six Bowls?
Rose Bowl (College Football Playoff) | #1 Georgia vs. #4 Ohio State
These games are based on what I think the committee will do rather than what they should do. Ohio State’s been rumored to be the top team in college football in the eyes of the committee, but we all know who they love.
The Georgia Bulldoga have taken care of business once again, though it’s been more of a rocky road than in years past. Carson Beck appears to have hit a groove, and the Bulldogs might be tough to beat now that the team’s firing on all cylinders. So, having Georgia at the top of the rankings should be what the committee decides.
The Ohio State Buckeyes want revenge on Georgia, too, so this storyline writes itself.
If not for a game-ending injury to Marvin Harrison Jr. (a controversial hit, too), Buckeye fans believe they would have won that game. Despite everything, they nearly did so there’s plenty to discuss with this matchup.
Sugar Bowl (College Football Playoff) | #2 Florida State vs. #3 Michigan
The Michigan Wolverines are dominating its competition, but they haven’t beaten anyone worthy of discussion. I think the committee weighs into that, plus the fact that the Wolverines still have Penn State and Ohio State on their schedule.
They’ll have their chance to prove they’re the best in college football, but they also still find themselves in the playoffs.
The Florida State Seminoles have notched a few quality wins so far this year. If we’re not rewarding quality wins, then what are we doing? The Seminoles have wins over LSU, Duke, and Clemson, which are 3 better wins than any opponent the Wolverines have played.
MORE: What is the College Football Playoff Selection Committee?
Cotton Bowl | Texas vs Washington
If the Texas Longhorns survive without Quinn Ewers for now, they’ll be a better team when he returns. The Longhorns are loaded, and the loss to Oklahoma appears less damaging than originally thought (especially if they get a rematch).
The problem is that the Longhorns do have that one loss and didn’t look their best against a Houston team that got smashed by Kansas State. So they sit as a one-loss team on the outside looking in, but they’re still in contention for now.
The Washington Huskies have the win over Oregon but have stumbled ever since then. The committee, assuming they’re watching the games, most likely puts the Huskies fifth due to their struggles.
Fiesta Bowl | Oregon vs Alabama
If the Oregon Ducks didn’t have the loss to Washington, they’d be in the playoff in the eyes of the committee. There’s still a chance they could make it, depending on the committee’s thoughts about their loss to Washington.
It’s tough to justify putting a team in over the team they lost to, however, the Ducks would be on the outside right now. With plenty of season left, they can play their way in by winning out.
The Alabama Crimson Tide aren’t a playoff contender right now, but they have a few games coming up that could put them in the playoffs. The loss to Texas hurts, though it looks better as the season progresses. They also haven’t dominated their competition like in years past, so quality wins are their biggest ally going forward.
Peach Bowl | Oklahoma vs. Air Force
Some believe that the committee will ignore Oklahoma’s win over Texas based on their loss to Kansas this past weekend. Huh? I really hope the committee doesn’t do this because it adds to their poor reputation already.
The Oklahoma Sooners are still a good team and in contention to win the Big 12 and compete for a spot in the playoff. One loss doesn’t change that. They also still have that win over Texas, and you have to take that into consideration when evaluating their resume.
The Group of Five spot feels like it’s between the Air Force Falcons and James Madison (yes, we know JMU can’t play in a bowl game). The Dukes have better wins on their resume, but the Falcons have dominated their competition more.
Plus, who wouldn’t want to watch the triple option go against Oklahoma’s veer and shoot?
Orange Bowl | Louisville vs Missouri
It comes down to who the committee likes the most between Penn State, Notre Dame, Missouri, and Ole Miss right now. I think the Missouri Tigers get the nod here despite being ranked lower than the other three teams in the AP Poll.
This spot might be the toughest to pick because there are multiple teams with different resumes competing for that spot. I think the Tigers are playing well enough to get the committee’s attention, even if they don’t have the best win over these teams.
The Louisville Cardinals have wins over Duke and Notre Dame, but have a bad loss against Pitt. Fortunately, Florida State can’t occupy this spot, so the wins get them in here. The win over Notre Dame will help them tremendously.
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