Fantasy football is more than just the weekly head-to-head games we’ve all grown to love. On Underdog, fantasy managers can put their player-projection skills to the test by predicting player stat lines. Here are my top Underdog plays for the Sunday slate of Week 6 games.
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Top Underdog Pick’ems for Week 6
Underdog Pick’ems allows fantasy managers to predict stat lines and fantasy-point totals for almost all fantasy-relevant players. You can make two picks that pay out 3x, even money, or add more selections to your entry for higher payouts.
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The levels are 3x, 6x, 10x, and 20x, progressing with each additional pick’em you add to your entry. Let’s take a look at this week’s Underdog Pick’ems for the Sunday slate.
For the Sunday slate, there are far more games than the individual prime-time games. Underdog entries are limited to five pick’ems. Most weeks, there will be more than five pick’ems I like. Additionally, hitting a five-pick-’em entry is hard. I don’t want to consistently go 3-2 or 4-1 and lose.
As a result, I will limit this list to my favorite picks of the week. I will try and keep it to no more than 10 maximum. At the bottom of this article, I used to provide my pick’em entry, which consists of three to four of my top pick’ems.
Unfortunately, due to new regulations in New York, I can no longer play these myself. To compensate, I will list the pick’ems in order of confidence.
Dameon Pierce Lower Than 54.5 Rushing Yards
The pattern with Dameon Pierce is pretty straightforward. When he faces weak run defenses like the Steelers and Falcons, he can be moderately efficient. This week, he gets a Saints run defense allowing just 3.5 YPC, the fourth-lowest in the league.
In Weeks 1-3, Pierce totaled 38, 31, and 31 rushing yards. He’s a good player, but his offensive line is doing him no favors. As a result, his season YPC is just 2.94. Let’s fade Pierce in a bad matchup this week.
Jerome Ford Lower Than 36.5 Rushing Yards
Jerome Ford’s carry counts by game this season have been 15, 16, 10, and nine. Volume hasn’t been an issue. Yet, he’s topped 36 rushing yards just once. That came in Week 2 against the Steelers’ weak run defense.
MORE: PFN Consensus Rankings
This week, the Browns are heavy home underdogs against a 49ers defense allowing 43 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. They should fall behind early and be forced to abandon the run, not even giving Ford a chance to break one.
Raheem Mostert Higher Than 67.5 Rushing Yards
Raheem Mostert has enjoyed a positive game script in three games this season. In those games, he’s run for 121, 83, and 65 yards. The 65 yards was last week, and De’Von Achane had taken over as the lead back.
Achane is now on IR. Even if Jeff Wilson plays, he will not be playing more than 25 snaps. Mostert is going to be the lead back and should see 12-15 carries.
Oct 8, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert (31) runs the ball against the New York Giants during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium.Have you seen the Panthers run defense? If you have, please let me know, because I haven’t. The Panthers are allowing 5.2 YPC and 128 rushing yards per game to running backs. This is a great spot for Mostert.
Jared Goff Lower Than 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Death. Taxes. Jared Goff throwing no more than one touchdown on the road. We are going on 13 of his last 14 road starts where Goff has not thrown more than a single touchdown. It’s a thing.
The Bucs have allowed just four passing touchdowns all season. They are coming off their bye. I think they win this game and limit Goff to no more than one touchdown pass.
Kenneth Walker III Higher Than 68.5 Rushing Yards
Last week, I recommended the higher on James Conner’s rushing yards against the Cincinnati Bengals. We were well on our way to an easy win before he departed with a knee injury. It was a tough-luck loss, but that doesn’t mean we can’t go back to the well targeting the Bengals’ run defense.
The Bengals allow 5.0 yards per carry to opposing running backs. Walker has at least 64 rushing yards in three of his four games this season. He’s a good player in a good spot against a weak run defense. I think he will hit triple digits this week.
Kareem Hunt Lower Than 17.5 Rushing Yards
Just take all of the opposing defense analysis from Ford and apply it to Kareem Hunt. Then add in the fact that Hunt has run for 13 and 12 yards in each of his two games with the Browns. Further, note that those two games were both four-score blowouts in opposite directions.
The Browns are going to struggle to get anything going offensively with PJ Walker starting. In the projected negative game script, I will fade both of their running backs.
Fantasy Start/Sit: Every Game, Every Player
Looking to get more advice for this week’s action? PFN Fantasy Analyst Kyle Soppe has analyzed every fantasy-relevant player in every game this week. Use the table below to find the matchup you’re looking for.
Prefer to read every matchup all at once? Check out our Week 5 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet.
