Fantasy football managers went into Sunday Night Football expecting fireworks, and, for the most part, they got them. Dallas Goedert and A.J. Brown shined for the Eagles while Tyreek Hill did Tyreek Hill things for the Dolphins, but some managers were let down in the biggest game of the week. What does it mean moving forward?
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Dallas Goedert Is on a Roll
Remember way back in early September when Goedert was shut out in New England? That feels like a long time ago now, as Philadelphia’s tight end has caught at least five balls in five of six games since and has scored in two of his past three.
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No, Goedert isn’t going to threaten the second fantasy tier at the position, but he has entered the third tier thanks to this run, and that means he allows you to tread water at the position.
Fantasy Football, TE Tier 1
Fantasy Football, TE Tier 2
- Mark Andrews
- T.J. Hockenson
Fantasy Football, TE Tier 3
- Sam LaPorta
- Evan Engram
- Dallas Goedert
- George Kittle
The Eagles have a very favorable final four weeks of the regular season (SEA, AZ, and NYG twice), putting Goedert in a spot to potentially peak at the perfect time.
DeVonta Smith Can’t Get Going
For the third consecutive game and the fifth time this season, Smith was held under 50 receiving yards. His scoreless streak stretched to a fifth straight game (he didn’t have a streak longer than two games last regular season) and his 16.7% target share against the Dolphins was anything but encouraging.
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Maybe it’s something, maybe it’s not, but WR2s who we thought were stable for fantasy purposes coming into the season have underachieved. Jaylen Waddle hasn’t lived up to the hype, Tee Higgins has been an outright bust, and the 49ers have struggled to get both of their receivers going at the same time.
A.J. Brown tied the NFL record for consecutive games with at least 125 receiving yards (five) and has distanced himself from Smith in terms of target earning. Can Smith rebound?
It shouldn’t be counted out. In the middle of last season, he had back-to-back-to-back-to-back games under 45 receiving yards — something that is easy to forget when you look at the season-end numbers.
I’m more likely to buy than to sell Smith at his current cost, but I understand the cause for concern, especially with us entering the second half of the fantasy regular season. Hang in there!
Raheem Mostert Underwhelms
Mostert finished with 51 yards against a tough Eagles defense, and while 5.6 points wasn’t what fantasy managers had in mind, he averaged 5.1 yards per touch. Philadelphia is simply a tough matchup — they were able to make Miami one-dimensional and held the ball for over 60% of the game.
Jeff Wilson Jr. making his 2023 debut (one catch for four yards) didn’t impact Mostert’s usage in the least. I expect that to change with time, and that is worrisome. The Dolphins aren’t going to be trailing often, but if this turns into a three-man committee when De’Von Achane comes back in Week 11, fantasy managers are going to have to adjust their expectations.
Through seven weeks, the Dolphins are giving their running backs 26.7 touches per game. If we use that as a guide for projecting forward, here is my initial read in what a committee could look like for the final month-and-a-half of the regular season after Achane is activated off of IR:
- Achane: 13
- Mostert: 10
- Wilson Jr.: 4
Even if you want to shift around a few of those touches or write off Wilson Jr. altogether, volume is going to be an issue.
Mostert managers have one week of hope. If he can light up the Patriots (first meeting: 18 carries for 121 yards and two TDs) next week, there might be a brief selling window before the Week 10 bye.
He’s a good player, but with limited projectable volume when it matters most in our game, he’s the type of player I’d be looking to move on from after his next strong performance. As running backs get closer to health (Achane is one name, but Aaron Jones and Jerome Ford are others, not to mention Kyren Williams and Kahalil Herbert), this rest of season ranking is in position to decline with time:
15. James Cook, Buffalo Bills
16. Breece Hall, New York Jets
17. David Montgomery, Detroit Lions
18. Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins
19. Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
20. Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings
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